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Грэм Томас
Thomas Graham
Managing Director, Kissinger Associates
Quotes
03.10.2018
Russian Energy Week 2018
Geopolitical Scenarios and the Fuel and Energy Complex: The New Reality
There has always been some connection between the energy industry and geopolitics, as demonstrated by the various world events around strategic goods, such as oil and gas
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“Despite the fact that this is urgent, it really doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to do this in the near-term. We can’t do that because each country finds itself in an electoral cycle, and there are no political dividends to be had from arguing for a better relationship. In fact, you get political dividends by being tough. This inclination towards toughness is reinforced by the developments in the United States, domestically, at this point,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“This is problematic now, because we have the process of demonization going on, that tends to reinforce the antagonistic relationship, and pushes us further down this path of permanently hostile relations. And so, the urgent task that we face now is to reduce tensions between our two countries,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“The US–Russia relationship now is a competitive one. This shouldn’t be surprising: great powers compete. The United States and Russia have competed since the United States emerged as a great power at the very end of the 19th century. The issues that divide us today – different interpretations of the principles of the world order, geopolitical conflicts, the values gap – are the same ones that plagued this relationship from the very beginning. It’s not unusual that we are in this competitive relationship. I think the challenge now is to prevent this competitive relationship from turning into permanently adversarial one. In a multi-polar world, in a world where the is balance of power is the way of guaranteeing peace and stability over the long term, the United States and Russia are going to have to work as partners, in coalition against third countries and other forces that may threaten that balance. So we’re going to have to find a way to work together,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“The tendency in the United States is going to be towards toughness over the near term,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“If we continue down this path, we are going to find that the United States and Russia can both lose,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“Everybody agrees that what we need in this relationship is more communication, that we need to open up to channels of communication. It is extremely difficult to do under the circumstances in Washington at this point. But for those of us who have been dealing with this relationship for 30 years or more, this is actually the worst we’ve seen it. Even during the Cold War, there were regular communications, we had a much better understanding of what the perspective of the other side was, what the red lines were, what the limits were. We knew the risks that we were running in various policies that we undertook at that time. Now the two countries are operating in vacuum. Despite the educational exchange programmes, what we’ve seen over the past generation is the deterioration in expertise in both the United States about Russia, and Russia about the United States. With that lack of expertise, without the communications at this point, the risk multiplies dramatically, that we’re going to misread one another, we’re going to wind up in a situation that neither country really intends to be in. We need to open up the channels of communication, we need to talk through the range of issues. And the focus of that initial conversation should be not business as usual: we’re not returning to that, we’re not looking to be partners anymore. What we’re looking for is to make sure that we clearly understand the other side, that we can base our policies on reality, and not on our own myths about what the other side is,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“It’s time in both countries that we move away from the process of assigning blame for the state of affairs to trying to figure out how we get off this path towards permanently hostile relations <...> The refrain that you hear in Moscow is that we didn’t start this, we’re not responsible for this mess, suggesting that the Russian side does not have to exercise any initiative in trying to find the way out of this dangerous path. Or that it is the United States that is going to have to make all the compromises in order to turn the situation around. Similarly, if you look at this from the American standpoint, the United States needs to abandon this idea, that if we simply raise the level of pressure enough, largely through piling on additional sanctions, then Russia is going to cave in to our preferences. The harder fact that we need to recognize is that neither country is going to cave. Each country sees itself as defending its own national interest, and each side is going to have to demonstrate some greater flexibility in order to reduce the tension to move this relationship in a more positive way. And the sooner that we started doing this, the various discussions that we’re having on Syria, on Ukraine, the very strategic questions, the better off we’re going to be,”
25.01.2018
Russia House in Davos 2018
Russia–USA Bilateral Relations: One Year on
“This is a competitive relationship but the United States and Russia need to manage this competition as responsible great powers,”