Europe will not be able to turn away entirely from Russian energy resources in the next decade
The markets will not be able to manage without Russian energy resources. That’s because the markets are finely balanced, and there is no superfluous capacity, either in terms of oil or gas. Yes, there may be some redistribution as far as supply chains and suppliers are concerned. But that will not be instantaneous. It is a long process, and is a question of competition, [which – ed.] will lead to an increase in prices. And there is the fact that the infrastructure is not currently in place to address these matters quickly. Enormous investment needs to be made in order to build [infrastructure – ed.] — Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
No single country, or a single group of countries, is able to completely replace Russian exports to the European Union. <...> The amounts offered by the Russian Federation simply cannot be compared with other countries. So, volumes play the decisive role here. Russia has some restrictions regarding pipeline supplies, but these are being supplemented by LNG options — Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
If our oil disappears, it will need to be replaced. Oil will be supplied from other places located further away, such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. There will be other logistics-related costs. <...> Whereas at the start of the year three quarters of our oil went to Europe, now more than 50% of it goes to the Asian market. <...> We need to work on restructuring our export infrastructure. That does not only mean oil pipelines, but reservoirs and ports, too. In addition, there will need to be a fleet of tankers, as well as mechanisms and tools to facilitate trade, and funding for trading operations — Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, Gazprom Neft.
Theoretically, one could set up a new fuel assembly, conduct R&D, and do all the testing in around 10 years. But that would involve a huge amount of money and not very much sense — Alexey Likhachev, Director General, State Atomic Energy Corporation ROSATOM.
In attempting to replace such an immense amount [of energy resources – ed.], EU countries are at risk of an energy crisis. This fact needs to be voiced, because nobody is talking about it. If this trend continues, the outlook will be bleak – we’re talking about jobs being lost, and factories being closed — Leonid Mikhelson, Chairman of the Management Board, Member of the Board of Directors, NOVATEK.