A socially oriented non-financial development institution and a major organizer of international conventions, congress, exhibitions, business, social and sporting, public, and cultural events.

The Roscongress Foundation is a socially oriented non-financial development institution and a major organizer of international conventions; exhibitions; and business, public, sporting, and cultural events. It was established in pursuance of a decision by the President of the Russian Federation.

The Foundation was established in 2007 with the aim of facilitating the development of Russia’s economic potential, promoting its national interests, and strengthening the country’s image. One of the roles of the Foundation is to comprehensively evaluate, analyse, and cover issues on the Russian and global economic agendas. It also offers administrative services, provides promotional support for business projects and attracting investment, and helps foster social entrepreneurship and charitable initiatives.

Each year, the Foundation’s events draw participants from 208 countries and territories, with more than 15,000 media representatives working on-site at Roscongress’ various venues. The Foundation benefits from analytical and professional expertise provided by 5000 people working in Russia and abroad. In addition, it works in close cooperation with 160 economic partners; industrialists’ and entrepreneurs’ unions; and financial, trade, and business associations from 75 countries worldwide.

The Roscongress Foundation has Telegram channels in Russian (t.me/Roscongress), English (t.me/RoscongressDirect), and Spanish (t.me/RoscongressEsp). Official website and Information and Analytical System of the Roscongress Foundation: roscongress.org.

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Are Inflationary Trends in the Global Economy a Sign of Growth, a Result of Deglobalization, or an Indication of an Upcoming Crisis?
3 June 2021
15:00—16:15
KEY CONCLUSIONS
The pandemic had an impact on economic development, but did not lead to a dramatic decline

A year ago, everyone believed that a major drop which occurred at the first stage of the crisis would lead to sluggish recovery of economic demand, and that this disinflationary factor would prevail. <...> What we now see – thanks to public policy intervention, but also because the economy has certainly adapted – that the demand has rapidly recovered, <...> certain factors on the supply side and restrictions which are an inflationary factor as well — Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia .

What is happening now in terms of economic growth and inflation is not something unexpected; if we take a look at 2020, some companies experienced a drop in profits, while others had an increase, and household savings did not decline either – they also increased — Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Moscow Exchange PJSC.

It seems to me that 2020 did not produce any new phenomena in the global economy, but rather it crystallized and sharply accelerated things that originated in 2010s. Mounting debt in developed and middle-income countries is not a 2021 story; this is a 2010s story, and it is now taking off — Evgeny Vinokurov, Chief Economist, Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD).

Indeed, low inflation may not be the problem over the long term — Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia .

ISSUES
Mounting inflationary pressure

Right now, the main risk is actually mounting inflationary pressure — Vladimir Mau, Rector, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).

The list of pro-inflationary factors is rather impressive: commodity prices are way up, supply chains are interrupted, which leads to shortages, which in turn leads to inflationary pressures; another facet here is migration. <…> There is a shortage of workers because migration suffered a major blow due to the pandemic. <...> There are more systemic long-term factors as well, such as, for example, the environmental agenda and ESG — Yaroslav Lissovolik, Head, SberCIB Investment Research; Senior Managing Director, Sberbank.

Impact of monetary policy, liquidity injections on inflationary expectations

The pandemic has created this unusual situation and now those huge injections of liquidity, especially in developed countries, most likely play less of a role than the need to rapidly restore demand to pre-pandemic levels. The demand is excessive, the logistics still lag behind — Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Moscow Exchange PJSC.

The temporary surge in inflation is entirely dependent on inflationary expectations, on how much people trust the monetary regulators. <...> Now, in contrast to the period of stagflation, the monetary authorities precisely understand that they have a mandate to curb inflation, and they have independence. In countries where their independence is maintained, inflationary expectations do not respond to the temporary surge caused by recovery from the crisis. <...> Where the independence of the central bank is threatened, as in Turkey, for example, we see high inflation and high inflationary expectations — Ruben Enikolopov, Rector, New Economic School.

We have good reasons to be cautious of inflation, <...> the unprecedented scale of stimulus that we saw over the past year — Yaroslav Lissovolik, Head, SberCIB Investment Research; Senior Managing Director, Sberbank.

Getting carried away with excessively dovish policies in the face of a supply shock is a very odd thing, fraught with major inflationary consequences — Vladimir Mau, Rector, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).

SOLUTIONS
Stabilizing inflationary expectations

The main goal is to move away from inflationary expectations, which may have heated up the markets for a long time — Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Moscow Exchange PJSC.

Monetary regulators’ response to inflation

There is a risk associated with <…> the possibility of a debt crisis, and I would also emphasize a risk of market overheating thanks to stimulation. <...> All these factors require central banks to turn to other options, including deflationary ones; so, it is not only the scale of inflation and its threat, but also various repercussions, ranging from inflation to <...> the possibility of major de-inflationary pressure — Yaroslav Lissovolik, Head, SberCIB Investment Research; Senior Managing Director, Sberbank.