non-financial development institution
major organizer of congress and exhibition events
RC personal account
Восстановление пароля
Введите адрес электронной почты или телефон, указанные при регистрации. Вам будет отправлена инструкция по восстановлению пароля.
Некорректный формат электронной почты или телефона
Economic Protectionism and Global Markets
25 May 2018
10:15—11:30
KEY CONCLUSIONS
Economic protectionism in the world is growing

In terms of non-tariff measures <...> in 2000 their list included 3200, they were tariff quotas and anti-dumping measures. In 2017 there are more than 12 thousand of them. <...> Protectionism grows from year to year and is quite intense, it's a big problem, and its roots lie in the fact that we have never been able to rethink the role of developed and developing countries — Paul Kadochnikov, President, Center for Strategic Research Foundation.

The Association is considering 717 trade measures undertaken by different countries, and 570 of them have a discriminatory or protectionist effect — Frank Schauff, Chief Executive Officer, Association of European Businesses.

If we look at the latest US sanctions that were imposed against Russia and Iran, then <...> these sanctions are an unconventional expression of protectionist measures — Frank Schauff, Chief Executive Officer, Association of European Businesses.

We already were in a similar situation, when Reagan came to power. <...> What was achieved by the trade wars he arranged? <...> The trade deficit has grown significantly — Charles Robertson, Global Chief Economist, Renaissance Capital .

Protectionism threatens the development of the world economy

Now the protectionist war is even more pronounced than in the days of Reagan. Global supply chains did not exist back then. <...> The subversive effect of protectionism, it used to be much smaller <...> and more predictable — Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia .

At least for the current time, this (US protectionism - Ed.) is something that does not greatly change our forecasts of the countries' economic growth. But the risk is still there — James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Ratings .

In the 1980s there was tension between the US and Japan <...> but the relative size of the Japanese and US economies is very different from that of China, and in addition Japan <…> was a strategic political partner for the United States, and now the situation is different. And now this can lead to a huge trade war — Alexey Mordashov, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Severstal.

The tendencies of globalization are still dominant

Until 2011, world trade grew twice as fast as global GDP and the last 7 years the pace was lower than that of global GDP. <...> In 2017, global trade again grows 1.5 times faster than global GDP, it is a sign that globalization is alive <...> and continues to expand. <...> Trump administration is disturbing this balance — Paul Kadochnikov, President, Center for Strategic Research Foundation.

The global economic structure is so integrated, while technology blurs the boundaries to the point where physical borders do not matter anymore — Koh Poh Koon, Senior Minister of State, Ministry of Trade and Industry of the Republic of Singapore.

Protectionism forces the development of domestic markets

Evidently, emerging markets as well as larger ones like Russia can no longer rely on Western capital markets. <...> The increase in restrictions changes the flow of funds <...> it dictates the need for each market <...> to create its own infrastructure, develop domestic capital markets at an accelerated pace — Alexei Yakovitsky, Global Chief Executive Officer, VTB Capital .

National regulation creates ample opportunities for privileges to local producers

There will always be efforts of local politicians and their attempts to create some kind of privileges for domestic local companies <...> because there are big differences in internal regulation — Oleg Vyugin, Chairman of the Board of Directors at SAFMAR Financial Investments.

ISSUES
Protectionism exacerbates the debt problem

The relationship between global commerce and global debt exists. <...> If we have trade restrictions, how will the countries receive the currency to pay the debt.<...> In the OECD, the sovereign debt is USD 3 trillion, half of it is the US commitment — Sergey Storchak, Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation .

Financial markets are increasingly unstable and unpredictable

The largest type of threat that exists today <…> it stems from restrictions on financial markets — Sergey Storchak, Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation .

One of the effects these tensions have in the financial market, in the currency market, is that volatility goes up — Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia .

There are a lot of bubbles in the US, and if you rock the boat all these bubbles will burst, like it was with the stock market. <...> Therefore, I do not think that in the short run there will be real trade wars — Andy Xie, Independent Economist .

SOLUTIONS
Keep the economy open as possible

The only recipe for success is to somehow keep the openness of the market, to remain competitive — Jörg Gasser, State Secretary for International Financial Matters, Federal Department of Finance of the Swiss Confederation .

We are trying to minimize internal threats, so that we do to engage in protectionism. 2/3 of our economy is oriented to the external market, if we are engaged in protectionism, we will destroy our own economy. <...> We are promoting greater integration in ASEAN — Koh Poh Koon, Senior Minister of State, Ministry of Trade and Industry of the Republic of Singapore.

Use legal opportunities to resist protectionism

We do not have a new agreement on the WTO services, there is not a single agreement on the numbers. This means <...> countries are free to behave aggressively enough. <...> these pinpoint blows will wake up the most notorious protectionists — Paul Kadochnikov, President, Center for Strategic Research Foundation.

Conduct a flexible policy

There should be a flexible monetary policy, it allows countries to adapt to any external shocks — Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor, Bank of Russia .

The material was prepared by the Russian news agency TASS