The world is trying to understand the impact caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainty still remains, in this issue of the annual «Trend Vision 2020. Russia» report experts talk about trends, signals of change and how to analyze them, in order to make the future, in which this world crisis is not the last one, to be not a frightening «black box», but a platform for exciting experiments for successful brands and companies focused on long-term sustainability.
The Roscongress Foundation presents the salient points of the publication accompanied by fragments of broadcasts of relevant panel discussions from the business programme of international events held by the Roscongress Foundation.
Economic outlook. The recovery of the Russian economy is planned in three stages. Return to GDP growth expected in 2021.
At the end of June, the IMF worsened its forecast for Russia, announcing a fall in GDP in 2020 by 6.6% (in April, the forecast was for a fall of 5.5%). In contrast, the forecast for 2021 was raised to 4.1% from 3.5% in April 2020. The reason for the projected sharp decline in Russia in 2020 is the significant decline in disposable income due to the rapid decline in oil prices.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a more negative impact on economic activity in the first half of 2020 than expected, according to the World Economic Outlook Update. The recovery is forecasted to be more gradual than previously predicted.
To prevent the spread of coronavirus pandemic in Russia, non-working days were announced from March 30 to April 5, 2020. The period of non-working days were workers didn’t work, but kept their salary, was extended twice before ending on 11 May.
The dynamics of the decline in industrial production in Russia in June on an annualized basis remained negative and almost unchanged compared to May 2020. The largest decline is in the commodity sector.
The Russian government’s economic recovery plan is designed in three stages. It contains 500 new measures with a budget of approximately RUB 5 trillion over two years.
Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/sleduyushchie-20-let/search/#02:20:42.980
People see the situation around the COVID-19 pandemic as less negative than after the VAT increase and the announcement of the pension reform in 2018, but more negative than the crisis in 2014. However, in June 2020 there were signs of optimism.
Three out of four (75%) agree they live in dangerous and anxious times, but only 28% do not believe that they can change their lives. How does the perception of the situation change depending on their stage of life? The analysis is based on statements that most accurately reflect the behavior of the population in terms of the level of anxiety and readiness to act.
Comparison of the data of the first wave of 2020 with the same period last year shows that the younger generation is more susceptible to the deterioration of sentiment in connection with the present time.
The importance of finding or changing jobs in the next 12 months has grown significantly for almost all segments (from 17% to 22%). A healthy lifestyle, the priority of which was stated by half of the respondents in 2019/1. Although it is still top, it fell to 45% — mainly down to those for whom it is now more important to regain employment and income.
Crises associated with the breakdown of familiar patterns and the loss of connections also stimulate the creation of something new. Not all people are ready to see crises as a stimulus for development, only 13.6% of residents of cities with a population of one million have flexible thinking and are not afraid of the new, in particular, only 0.5% of respondents say they are looking for a new challenge.
Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/forum-delovoy-dvadtsatki-po-mezhdunarodnoy-torgovle-i-investitsiyam/search/#01:10:24.511
Despite the pandemic, the values have not lost their relevance. But the coronavirus has set its priorities. It can be said with certainty that such basic values as Safety, Health and Empathy became key for consumers.
Each crisis increases the value of health — a person can cope with economic problems or take advantage of new opportunities only if they are healthy. The pandemic has accelerated the spread of telemedicine. Kaluga Region became the first in Russia where telemedicine was included into the compulsory medical insurance system. You can now consult a doctor remotely for free.
Technology adoption is more comfortable where the consumer still has the choice to use the new or the old, there is no strict time frame and there are incentive programs. In a situation where there is external pressure on the consumer (fines, mandatory passes, etc.), it is important for brands to act through positive reinforcements.
The value of empathy and trust is growing. You need to ask questions about the emotional side of automation in advance, so that you don’t lose sight of ethics in moments of technological acceleration.
The role of technology is not only to streamline and speed up the business processes of organizations, but also to help consumers understand their own needs and emotions in order to facilitate the selection and receipt of goods and services. Using the analysis of transactions of a large number of consumers or through external observations of their behavior and emotions, technologies can create a profile of a person and give him recommendations based not only on the data of one particular consumer, but also on other data similar to his/her profile.
Video: https://roscongress.org/sessions/eef-2019-konkurentsiya-stran-za-ekonomicheskiy-rost-kakov-plan-rossii/search/#00:41:42.912
For more information about construction as a sector with a sizeable share in many economies, rising level of digitalization, and shifts in consumer sentiment in real estate, please see the Healthcare, Consumer Sentiment, Digitalization, COVID-19 and StayHomeEconomy.
The Roscongress Foundation is a socially oriented non-financial development institution and a major organizer of nationwide and international conventions; exhibitions; and business, public, youth, sporting, and cultural events. It was established in pursuance of a decision by the President of the Russian Federation.
The Foundation was established in 2007 with the aim of facilitating the development of Russia’s economic potential, promoting its national interests, and strengthening the country’s image. One of the roles of the Foundation is to comprehensively evaluate, analyse, and cover issues on the Russian and global economic agendas. It also offers administrative services, provides promotional support for business projects and attracting investment, helps foster social entrepreneurship and charitable initiatives.
Each year, the Foundation’s events draw participants from 208 countries and territories, with more than 15,000 media representatives working on-site at Roscongress’ various venues. The Foundation benefits from analytical and professional expertise provided by 5,000 people working in Russia and abroad.
The Foundation works alongside various UN departments and other international organizations, and is building multi-format cooperation with 180 economic partners, including industrialists’ and entrepreneurs’ unions, financial, trade, and business associations from 81 countries worldwide, and 186 Russian public organizations, federal and legislative agencies, and federal subjects.
The Roscongress Foundation has Telegram channels in Russian t.me/Roscongress, English – t.me/RoscongressDirect, Spanish – t.me/RoscongressEsp and Arabic t.me/RosCongressArabic. Official website and Information and Analytical System of the Roscongress Foundation:roscongress.org.